29 Dec 2024 Reading time: 4 minutes 
What is the Paradox of Thrift
The Paradox of Thrift refers to the counterintuitive concept that, in many circumstances, when individuals save more money, it leads to a decrease in total savings across an economy.
As individuals choose to save more money, aggregate demand decreases. In a recessionary economy, this deepens the downturn, causing job losses and forcing people to deplete their savings or preventing them from growing their savings. Ultimately, total savings decline — enter the paradox: saving more to save less.
Side Note · Austerity
This is similar as to why reducing government spending (austerity) during recessions - amplifies the recession. It may seem like a counter notion, but an increase of government spending during recessionary periods is key to prevent larger issues and get an economy out of recession.
As for this reduction of government spending (austerity) and it’s correlation to hurting a country in recession; we have a great real world case study - The Great Recession. Not only did reduction in government spending prevent recovery of the recession in many nations that employed this tactic, it also had other negative effects. See this article for that analysis: Austerity in the aftermath of the Great Recession.
Additionally, and notably, extremely negative consequences were evident because of the reduction of government spending during The Great Depression: Fiscal austerity and the rise of the Nazis
Paradox of Thrift · Fallacy of Composition
The Paradox of Thrift is a notable example of the Fallacy of Composition.
The Fallacy of Composition is when one assumes something is true of the whole from the fact that it is true of some part of the whole. This fallacy has relations to other fallacies, but I won’t get into those here - but it is pretty interesting stuff if you are interested definitely look it up.
A very apt example that is an analogous to the Paradox of Thrift and another great example of the Fallacy of Composition, goes as follows:
If one stands up from their seat during a soccer game, they can see better. Therefore if everyone stands up, they can all see better!
Second-Order Thinking
This idea of the Paradox of Thrift and the Fallacy of Composition naturally leads to the concept of second-order thinking, which challenges us to move beyond immediate, surface-level conclusions and consider the broader, often counterintuitive, consequences of actions.
To examine second-order thinking, we will use the examples from earlier to walk through the naive first-order thoughts and then the second-order thoughts. Each of these examples are simplest versions of the examples, but
First-order thinking: Saving is good no matter what because it builds wealth. Second order thinking: Excessive saving during a recession reduces demand, leading to job losses and lower overall savings.
First-order thinking: Cutting government spending reduces deficits. Second order thinking: Reduced spending shrinks the economy, lowering tax revenue and increasing the debt-to-GDP ratio.
Conclusion
Especially with regards to economics, many policies and policy proposals require second-order thinking to determine whether it is a net positive or net negative.
Second-order thinking is important not just for deciding your view on policies but for everyday decisions, especially when confronted with something that sounds true or feels true. Our instinct is often to focus on the immediate, surface-level effects of a choice, which can lead to oversimplified conclusions. Second-order thinking reveals the hidden complexities behind what initially seems obvious and can lead to the exact opposite conclusion.
This deeper thinking requires us to ask questions like, “What happens next?” or “What are the broader implications?” It is not enough to stop at the first level of understanding, because the most important effects are often indirect or delayed. Second-order thinking forces us to go beyond immediate outcomes and consider how a choice might ripple through time and across various contexts. By analyzing the chain of consequences and exploring potential unintended outcomes, we can avoid shortsighted decisions and ensure our reasoning holds up under deeper scrutiny.
28 Dec 2024 Reading time: 1 minute 
I decided to start a new mini-project called “A Fortune A Day”. Each day I am going to consume a fortune cookie and then post the fortune on a new Bluesky page.
As for how it relates to this site, I will be doing a recap every week or month of either all of them or the best ones. It depends on how easy it is to keep up.
See the first fortune, on Bluesky here:
27 Dec 2024 Reading time: 4 minutes A bit of a different type of post, today, but it should be interesting - especially for those of you in on the eastern seaboard.
I have been frequenting Ocean Casino Resort in Atlantic City for a while now, with friends, and this year for vacation I decided to do vacation with my wife there.
I want to write about it because I don’t think it gets enough credit for how awesome it is, even relative to other AC and Vegas resorts. I’ll also include some tips throughout the article here, you won’t wanna miss them - they’re good.
Casino
First off, the casino floor is awesome. I spent a decent amount of time here. While they do allow smoking, it is less smokey than other casinos I have been too (especially less than ones on cruise ships).
Tips
These two tips involve balancing gambling and getting free drinks on the floor for a long time. So if that isn’t your thing, don’t pay much attention.
- Stay away from the slots. These have really bad odds and you will be out of money the quickest.
- There are two roulette machines (and tons of tables with people running them). I like both, but the one machine, by the walkway near the middle and the sports book, is my favorite machine.
- You can bet a minimum $3/spin, but you can also bet $1/spin for a chance on the “jackpot chance”.
- Sometimes the jackpot chance is one number sometimes two. I hit this a decent amount which typically pays a 15-30 dollar bonus - but can hit a lot more in the small/medium/large jackpot (or whatever it’s called). I hit the small jackpot once, which was 70 dollars.
- On the floor, you can grab a decent amount of free drinks - maybe ~1 an hour. Playing a low risk roulette play with your minimum $3 bet and then the $1 jackpot chance can keep you playing all weekend for hours a day and getting free drinks.
- The absolute best way to get free drinks and lose the least amount of money is the video poker on the bar (specifically the sports book bar in the center).
- The bartenders are obviously way more attentive than the servers on the floors as they have less people to attend to and don’t have to walk across the floor and back over and over.
- I usually play Jacks or Better and can stay there for many hours with a lot of free drinks and lose less money than the drinks are worth. It’s amazing.
Pool
My wife spent a lot of time at the heated pool. It has an indoor and outside part - she gave it amazing reviews. It is also free if you’re staying there.
Food
Everywhere we ate was amazing. They have multiple casual and fine dining options. We had meals at most of the places here, but our favorite was our large fine dining meal at Ocean Steak:
We ordered the wagyu meatballs as the appetizer, porterhouse for two, & a loaded baked potato.
Everything was amazing (including the free bread they give, its wild). One hilarious point was that the baked potato was by far the largest potato I have ever seen:
Zhen Bang
A casual dining experience that is great and we enjoyed a bunch is Zhen Bang.
The fried rice there is amazing and is a hugeeee portion. Perfection!
Spa
While I did not go to the spa, my wife said it was awesome. She got the day pass and had a great time.
Other
There’s a lot of miscellaneous stuff that is great about Ocean. Specifically, it being right on the ocean is awesome. Obviously, during the winter it’s too cold for the ocean - but the views are amazing.
Also, during the summer when I went - me and my friends rented a cabana at another pool and it was a great experience - and splitting it between a few friends made it not horrifically expensive.
A great experience that we both loved. Highly recommend!
11 Dec 2024 Reading time: 1 minute This is Part 6 in a multipart series on nationalizing AI:
Conclusion
As I mentioned in the first part - we are facing a fork in the road. We can either maintain the status quo and let AI be privately owned, or nationalize it.
If we follow the nationalization plan I outlined in Part 1, as well - with oversight and shared ownership and direct distribution of the profits and benefits to the public; we can offset unemployment issues, not suffer the massive problems with having a corporation owning AI, and can efficiently move AI forward for our own national and societal interest.
On the other hand, allowing private corporations to maintain sole control of the most powerful technology ever created will result in unparalleled suffering and pose an existential threat to humanity.
It is imperative we nationalize AI as soon as possible.
